Some NW aluminum smelters may not restart, analyst says 

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NEW YORK — Citing recent developments at Kaiser Aluminum and Golden Northwest Aluminum, an industry analyst says some Pacific Northwest smelters have slim chances of ever restarting production. 

Production cuts resulting from a power shortage and energy rationing appear likely to remain in place at least through 2003, according to aluminum analyst Lloyd O'Carroll of BB&T Capital Markets. 

Kaiser last month made a deal with the electricity supplier that relieves Kaiser from paying a penalty to BPA on unused power at its idled Mead, Spokane County, and Tacoma smelters for one year. 

It is "very likely" that there will be no production for Kaiser's two smelters beyond that, and there is "some probability that the smelters would never run again," O'Carroll said Friday in an update on aluminum markets. 

Golden Northwest had been contemplating resuming output at its Goldendale smelter in April but because of a recent loss of an aluminum-production contract with Norsk Hydro, "restart is quite unlikely," O'Carroll said.