High and dry
The second worst drought in 100 years could severely erode the Inland Northwest's economy
Mike Prager - Staff writer
Great civilizations grow along great rivers, and so it is in the Pacific Northwest.
The mighty Columbia River powers our industry, lights our homes and nourishes farm crops that feed millions of people worldwide.
But what happens when nearly half of the water stops flowing?
Do factories shut down? Do homes go dark and farms stop working?
They could, and in some cases, already have.
The Pacific Northwest is in a drought, the second worst in a century. The governor of Washington has declared it. The National Weather Service says below-normal snowfall caused it.
"It's too late to do anything for runoff, power, snow pack -- not that a wet April, May or June wouldn't be appreciated," said professor Bob Quinn, a climate expert at Eastern Washington University.
While many people aren't being hurt immediately, drought has the potential to undermine the foundation of the Northwest economy -- its inexpensive hydropower.
This comes at a time when the entire West Coast is facing an energy crisis, in part from economic growth.
Already, Kaiser Aluminum Corp. has shut down its Mead smelter. And some Columbia Basin irrigators are being paid to switch off their pumps to save water and electricity.
"It's the specific users who will get hit," Quinn said.
But the problem really belongs to everyone in the region.
Last week, Northwest officials said electrical blackouts are possible, and Washington Gov. Gary Locke traveled to Spokane to make a plea for conservation.
"It's really an urgent problem that affects the whole Northwest," said Tom Richardson, director of Cheney City Light, whose customers face a rate increase later this year.
Not since 1977 has the Northwest seen such a crisis.
But where did it come from, and how did the Northwest become so vulnerable so quickly?
The answer lies in the mountains, where Pacific storms in an average year drop 10 to 12 feet of snow or more in the higher elevations.
This year, the snow pack is slightly more than half of the average.
A drought can be declared in Washington when snowfall is less than three-fourths of normal.
This spring's snow pack is so lean the Columbia River is expected to flow at only 53 percent of normal at The Dalles Dam this summer. In 1977, the worst year on record, the river's flow dropped to 51 percent of normal.
Low flow means less water for power, irrigation, recreation and fish migration.
Curiously, the Spokane and Coeur d'Alene areas may be spared the worst of the crisis for now. Avista Corp. says it has sufficient generating capacity to meet demand, and is trying to avoid rate increases.
Inland Power and Light Co. has a long-term contract to maintain its current rates.
The Spokane-Rathdrum aquifer, the area's underground source of domestic water supply, is expected to meet residents' needs this summer.
But the outlook is not so rosy in the Puget Sound area, where power rates have already risen and water-use restrictions are likely this summer.
That's not to say Spokane isn't feeling some pain.
Kaiser workers remain off the job after going through a two-year lockout and now an energy-related shutdown. The drought threatens to extend their layoff.
"When you are in standby mode you can't make any long-term plans," said Wayne Bentz, head shop steward for Local 329. Union members, he said, "are left hanging in the balance."
Hydrologists say the weather in Spokane reflected what's happened throughout the region. Since Oct. 1, the city has received 5.25 inches of precipitation, or half of normal.
The water-supply shortage extends across Washington, Oregon, North Idaho, Western Montana and southern British Columbia. Parts of eastern Oregon and southern Idaho fared somewhat better.
"This is big because it affects the Columbia River Basin from top to bottom," said Charles Ross, hydrologist at the Spokane weather office. "It's certainly one of the bleaker years we've seen."
Cold water in the Pacific Ocean disrupted the normal storm track, sending snow-producing storms north and south of the region during the months when precipitation is at its greatest.
Even in March, which brought a series of moderate storms, precipitation was slightly below normal.
Snow pack reaches its maximum around April 1, so what's in the mountains today is what the region can expect for water supply through next autumn.
Thin snow pack usually releases its water early, something that's likely to affect the seasons for trout fishing and whitewater rafting.
The early runoff could also heighten the risk of forest fires, especially if dry weather persists in May and June.
Fire officials hope the U.S. Climate Prediction Center is right in calling for a chance of wetter-than-normal conditions through June.
By July, the Inland Northwest should be basking in its typical 80-plus-degree heat, said EWU's Quinn, an expert in long-range meteorology.
"Cool, wet summers are like one in five (probability)," he said. "I see a very hot dry summer."
Continued dry weather would deepen the current problems, Quinn said.
Scientists have tried to identify long-range cycles from weather records, but dry years often punctuate a series of wet ones and vice versa.
During the last severe drought in 1977, rainy weather in the second half of the year brought an end to the crisis before it could worsen. But 1977 saw an even smaller snow pack and less precipitation through March.
The drought took its toll that year. Winter wheat production fell 30 percent. Surcharges went onto utility bills. Disasters were declared in 27 counties of Eastern Washington and North Idaho.
The Spokane River dropped to a relative trickle at 441 cubic feet per second on July 21, 1977, or about a third of its normal summer low.
In unexpected consequences, authorities that year reported more deaths from swimmers wading too deep in rivers and mountain climbers falling into gaping glacial crevasses.
Despite the low water, river managers filled Lake Roosevelt behind Grand Coulee Dam by Labor Day.
This year, officials expect to have Lake Roosevelt filled by early July. Other reservoirs such as Dworshak on the North Fork of the Clearwater will not refill.
In agriculture, dryland farmers should fare better than they did in 1977 because early snowfall protected the tiny wheat plants and then melted slowly into the soil.
This year, irrigators with junior water rights may lose their supplies.
One sure loser will be fish, which have rebounded strongly in recent years.
Downstream fingerlings won't get an easy ride to the ocean like they have in past years when river managers spilled water in the spring to push them out to the sea.
And wild upstream spawners will encounter low warm water when they return, and then won't have as much shallow streambed for laying eggs.
In the years after the 1977 drought, runs declined.
Kyle Martin, of the Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission, said the same thing will happen from this year's drought.
"It's going to take four or five years to recover," said Martin, a hydrologist and meteorologist for the tribes.
Another impact of the drought is that fewer waterfowl will be able to nest because low water in ponds and small lakes will reduce habitat.
Rural wells could drop, or even go dry. Dust storms may be more frequent. Native plants and trees could be stressed and weakened.
History shows that rain and snow will return, but the question is when.
"We've gone through droughts before," said EWU's Quinn, who remembers the conservation efforts in 1977 that helped the region get through that crisis.
"We'll muddle by," he said.