Throwing shade on the Fed’s interest rate path

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Each neighboring pair of dashed vertical lines represents the width of the target range for the federal funds rate that prevailed with each rate hike, with the left line of each pair indicating the Federal Reserve’s ON RRP offering rate and the right line of each pair the interest rate paid on reserves. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The Fed’s downgrade in its expected path for future rate hikes shows the central bank softening its view towards how many more interest rate increases will be needed before the neutral rate is reached, though market pricing and the Fed’s new forecast are still out of step.

Throwing Shade Opinion. Opinion. "The actual path of the (Fed’s key interest rate) will depend on what incoming data tell us about the economic outlook," Yellen said. In short, Powell is, and will continue to be, "more Yellen" when it comes to Fed interest rate policy. The Fed chair has changed, but interest rate policy has not.

June 02, 2017. How Have the Fed’s Three Rate Hikes Passed Through to Selected short-term interest rates? Alyssa Anderson, Jane Ihrig, Mary-Frances Styczynski, and Gretchen C. Weinbach*. Since December 2015, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has increased the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points three times, bringing the target range from 0 to 25 basis points in.

Given that movements in the fed funds rate are closely linked to movements in short-term interest rates, but less so to movements in long-term interest rates, changes in the policy rate are likely to impact the yield curve. 4 The next figure compares the fed funds rate with the difference between 10-year and one-year Treasury bond rates.

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Beyond this year, the Fed predicts it will raise rates three times in 2019 and one time in 2020 to push its benchmark rate up to 3.4%. Eventually the rate is expected to slip back to around 3% or a touch less. In a twist, the Fed raised the interest rate on excess reserves by only 20 basis points to 1.95%.

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